Piqued

As I was driving back from the grocery store today, I saw a sign in a convenience store window that I had seen before.  It says “we sold a winning lottery ticket.”  I started thinking about whether that was a smart thing to advertise.  On the one hand, some people might foolishly think that it’s a “winning store” and buy from them thinking they’re lucky or something.  But on the other hand, others might avoid buying lottery tickets there because what are the odds that the same place will sell two winning tickets?  And yet, it shouldn’t matter either way, because the probability that you will buy a winning ticket is completely independent of where you buy it, or what that store’s history of ticket sales is.

So here’s what I’m confused about:  On the one hand, from a buyer’s point of view, whether a store has ever sold a winning ticket before shouldn’t have any bearing on their choice to buy there.  Their odds of winning are exactly the same no matter where they go.  Yet from the store’s perspective, the chance that they will sell two winning tickets in a given amount of time is far lower than the chance that they will sell one during that period.

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In my last post, I linked a video I made which addresses several arguments for the existence of God, or at least some supernatural being.  A visitor to my blog posted a detailed and thoughtful series of questions/rebuttals as a comment.  Since the original post and my response are rather lengthy, I thought I’d dedicate a blog post to the exchange.

Here is the comment by “ARS:”

Brian, I would like to begin by saying that I appreciate someone trying to make a logical argument for or against a belief, I think the quote you brought up in the beginning of your video is a great one that more people who believe your faith should abide by.

However, some of the assertions logic and arguments you use in this video can be misleading, false or flawed. I would like to first address that you do not speak for all of man, not all man needs a divine presence, there is a large percentage of the population of this world that goes through life not believing in any god, presence or being influencing them.

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No, I don’t have a deep essay in store on how these four topics are profoundly related. I simply had several things I wanted to post today.

God

I was raised in a Christian home and today remain comitted to my faith. However, I also try to take a reasoned and level-headed approach to most things, and for that reason decided it was time to really address some of the questions I had about my faith. Not questions about what Christianity taught, or even what made Christianity right while other religions were wrong. Rather, I wanted to explore whether belief in the supernatural was itself reasonable. I had been taught it was, and knew some arguments for why it was, but felt I needed to explore more. After all, if I hold to Christianity on blind, untested faith, then my beliefs could be as misguided (or more so) than anyone else’s.

So last summer I spent a lot of time researching issues like existence, evolution, historical and geological corroboration of the Bible, the process of canonization, and a lot in between. What I found did not dismantle my belief in the Christian God. In fact, it strengthened it tremendously. But I did have to reevaluate and change some of my other beliefs in light of what I found.

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Well, we’re about halfway through the 2008 primaries, and it’s been interesting to watch.  Who would have thought nine months ago that Giuliani would be out with 0 delegates?  Or that after all the buzz, Fred Thomson would leave almost as early as he entered late?  Or that McCain, trailing badly in the polls just a few months ago, would be the frontrunner now that roughly half of the delegates have been decided, instead of Romney.  Even more, who would have thought 9 months ago that anti-war libertarian Ron Paul would actually pick up more than a few delegates?  Mike Huckabee’s performance is probably the least surprising, given the fact that he’s genuinely likable and well-spoken.

Of course, things have been less surprising but far more heated on the Democrat side.  With Clinton and Obama virtually tied for the nomination, the upcoming Democratic primaries are bound to be fun to watch.

As a strong Ron Paul supporter, I’m of course disappointed that my candidate isn’t doing better.  Yes, he’s still in the race and will be until people stop giving him money to spread his message of constitutional government and freedom.  But it’s going to take one of the biggest upsets in the history of American politics to make him the nominee at this point, which means it’s time for me to face facts and think about how I will vote in November given how the primaries have turned out.

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Introduction

Not long after one friend inspired me to write about abortion, another brought up the issue of the “new form” of conservatism that is growing particularly quickly among the younger generation. It’s a movement I’m proud to be a part of, but my friend’s take was not at all in favor of it, instead favoring the type of “conservatism” that President Bush has enacted during his presidency. He made a number of interesting claims about the new, largely Ron Paul-led movement:

• That we are pro-life but want to leave it up to the states to decide, which will result in it remaining legal in some states.
• That we want to legalize drugs because the current method of getting rid of them is failing.
• That we oppose the war on terror because the need to stop mass murderers doesn’t justify the cost.
• That we oppose all tax increases, which is causing economic problems due to national debt.

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