Well, we’re about halfway through the 2008 primaries, and it’s been interesting to watch.  Who would have thought nine months ago that Giuliani would be out with 0 delegates?  Or that after all the buzz, Fred Thomson would leave almost as early as he entered late?  Or that McCain, trailing badly in the polls just a few months ago, would be the frontrunner now that roughly half of the delegates have been decided, instead of Romney.  Even more, who would have thought 9 months ago that anti-war libertarian Ron Paul would actually pick up more than a few delegates?  Mike Huckabee’s performance is probably the least surprising, given the fact that he’s genuinely likable and well-spoken.

Of course, things have been less surprising but far more heated on the Democrat side.  With Clinton and Obama virtually tied for the nomination, the upcoming Democratic primaries are bound to be fun to watch.

As a strong Ron Paul supporter, I’m of course disappointed that my candidate isn’t doing better.  Yes, he’s still in the race and will be until people stop giving him money to spread his message of constitutional government and freedom.  But it’s going to take one of the biggest upsets in the history of American politics to make him the nominee at this point, which means it’s time for me to face facts and think about how I will vote in November given how the primaries have turned out.

First off, here’s my take on the candidates still in the race:

Hilary Clinton (D): Hilary is to American politics what Amber was to House’s group of doctor applicants: a cutthroat bitch.  She is polarizing in ways that transcend party politics, not only because of her power-hungry motives, but also because of her history of dubious dealings and generally selfish behavior.  She’s not a likable candidate, she’s shrill, and above all, she’s about the worst of both worlds in her political ideology.  She’s a social liberal to the core, an advocate of big government, an enemy of the free market, an unprincipled decision maker (voting for the Iraq war until it became unpopular) and divisive.  A Clinton candidacy will inspire votes for her opponent, whoever that may be.  She would be bad for America, and bad for the Democratic party.

Barack Obama (D): The other Democratic option is a gentleman with relatively little political experience, but a well-spoken and positive approach to politics.  While I don’t get the impression Barack really understands what policies are practically tenable, I’ve heard he at least has some decent advisers.  He seems genuinely decent and I frankly agree with a fair bit of what he says.  Of course, he’s still a big government liberal whose plan for education reform is to throw more money at the problem, and who wants government subsidized medicare.  But at least he doesn’t seem to be for amnesty, his pro-choice stance seems less adamant than Hilary’s, and he seems like someone who respects other ideas and may be open to them.  Not my first choice for President, but definitely not my last.

John McCain (R): Though not as frighteningly bad a candidate as Rudy Giuliani and not the flip-flopper that Romney was, McCain was always pretty darn low on my list of Republican candidates.  The fact that he’s said something to the effect of “we’ll stay in Iraq for a 100 years if necessary” shows how unwavering is his commitment to a war we can’t afford and don’t need to be fighting.  And his history of teaming up with liberal Democrats to pass big government legislation shows that he’s not really a conservative.  He’s also dangerously close to being pro-amnesty.  The only things I can think of that I really like about McCain are his pro-life beliefs and his opposition to things like earmarks in legislation and small reforms like that.

Mike Huckabee (R): As a Christian, I like a lot of what Huckabee has to say in the debates.  However, Huckabee also strikes me as someone not committed to the constitution and who would have no problem passing legislation that agreed with his worldview, regardless of its lawfulness.  He also has a troubling record on taxes, stole Paul’s “get rid of the IRS” mantra (only to replace it with a national sales tax), isn’t tough on immigration, and seems to think Iraq is still a worthwhile fight.  Meh.

Ron Paul (R): I’ve written plenty about Paul, so feel free to look at old posts for more.  Basically, I think this guy and his ideas would do tremendous good for our country and I will definitely be voting for him in the primaries.

Now, time for some practical considerations regarding the general election.  Obviously, if Paul were the Republican nominee I’d be voting for him.  But in the likely scenario that he’s not, how will I vote?  Here’s how I expect to vote depending on the various possible pairings in November, with my prediction of the actual outcome in parenthesis:

Clinton vs. McCain: Vote McCain (Close, but McCain would probably win).
Clinton vs. Huckabee: Vote Huckabee (Close, not sure who would win).
Obama vs. McCain: Probably abstain, but possibly vote Obama (Obama would almost certainly win).
Obama vs. Huckabee: Probably vote Huckabee (Obama would almost certainly win).