Piqued

As I was driving back from the grocery store today, I saw a sign in a convenience store window that I had seen before.  It says “we sold a winning lottery ticket.”  I started thinking about whether that was a smart thing to advertise.  On the one hand, some people might foolishly think that it’s a “winning store” and buy from them thinking they’re lucky or something.  But on the other hand, others might avoid buying lottery tickets there because what are the odds that the same place will sell two winning tickets?  And yet, it shouldn’t matter either way, because the probability that you will buy a winning ticket is completely independent of where you buy it, or what that store’s history of ticket sales is.

So here’s what I’m confused about:  On the one hand, from a buyer’s point of view, whether a store has ever sold a winning ticket before shouldn’t have any bearing on their choice to buy there.  Their odds of winning are exactly the same no matter where they go.  Yet from the store’s perspective, the chance that they will sell two winning tickets in a given amount of time is far lower than the chance that they will sell one during that period.

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In my last post, I linked a video I made which addresses several arguments for the existence of God, or at least some supernatural being.  A visitor to my blog posted a detailed and thoughtful series of questions/rebuttals as a comment.  Since the original post and my response are rather lengthy, I thought I’d dedicate a blog post to the exchange.

Here is the comment by “ARS:”

Brian, I would like to begin by saying that I appreciate someone trying to make a logical argument for or against a belief, I think the quote you brought up in the beginning of your video is a great one that more people who believe your faith should abide by.

However, some of the assertions logic and arguments you use in this video can be misleading, false or flawed. I would like to first address that you do not speak for all of man, not all man needs a divine presence, there is a large percentage of the population of this world that goes through life not believing in any god, presence or being influencing them.

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